Sharp-book devig · live order bookDon't pick a winner.
Don't pick a winner.
Pick a fair value.
Polymarket entries trading below devigged sharp-book fair value — ranked by edge, sized to your bankroll.
No account required
- /7 sports
- /Pinnacle devig
- /CLOB websocket
- /Kelly-capped sizing
The whole thesis
fair value−market price=your edge
Sharp sportsbooks are the most accurate probability estimate in sports. Signal reports where Polymarket disagrees.
Use cases
Built for people who price things
The discipline is the same: buy below fair value, size for survivable variance.
Disciplined bettors
A sized plan with a daily cap, and a graded record of every call.
Sharps & quants
Devigged fair values, closing-line value, and the order book behind every price.
Prediction-market newcomers
Each signal is a complete ticket: size, limit price, and exit.
Every signal, one question
fair−price=edge
How it works
01
Scan the sharp books
Pinnacle-class lines across seven sports, refreshed continuously with the margin removed.
02
Compare against Polymarket
The same outcomes trade on Polymarket. A price below fair value is measurable edge.
03
Size it to your bankroll
Set bankroll and risk once. Each signal arrives Kelly-capped, with an entry limit and target.
Estimate your profit
Your bankroll, the app's sizing math, and the variance most tools omit.
The philosophy
If you are going to bet, bet like an underwriter — win small, win often, never risk the account.
Losing often is fine
A 40¢ entry worth 44¢ loses more often than it wins and still profits. Sizing decides survival.
Small edges, compounded
Three points of edge is unremarkable alone and decisive across hundreds of capped entries.
Knowing when to sit out
You set the daily cap. When nothing clears it, the correct stake is zero.
The research
Three strategies were tested. One of them failed, and its page is still up.
Every study shows its measurement rather than its conclusion, states the sample it rests on, and says what would have to be true for it to be wrong. No account needed to read any of them.
The UFC model
Feeds the deskCan a fight model beat the Polymarket price?
Scores every UFC moneyline from fight history alone, then lets its own guards veto most of what it likes. The board shows the bouts it passed on too.
Read it →EdgeFinder
Negative resultIs Polymarket cheaper than the sharp books?
No. The disagreement with Pinnacle is real, and smaller than the spread and fee it costs to collect. Published because a search that hides its dead ends is not a search.
Read it →The quant desk
Open questionCan a market maker earn the spread here?
A recorder, a tick-by-tick simulator, and two academic quoting models — running on paper. The sample is still far too small to tell skill from variance.
Read it →What you get
A daily plan, not a feed. Your best entries, sized.
- Websocket pricing, tick by tick
- Kelly sizing against your bankroll
- Take-profit target on every entry
- Placed tracking with graded P&L
- Portfolio from your public wallet
- MLB, tennis, soccer, and esports coverage
See today's plan in two minutes.
Set your bankroll and the next scan is sized for you. Seven days free.
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